The AI agent boom is running on an assumption almost no one is testing: that demand will absorb whatever the industry can build. It won't. Active AI agents are projected to climb from roughly 28.6 million in 2025 to 2.2 billion by 2030 (one of the steepest supply curves in software history), while the surface those agents compete for stays fixed: human attention, consumer devices, API endpoints, and a finite number of real decision moments.
In a new piece for Forbes, RealDefense CEO Gary Guseinov names the point where those two curves collide the "Guseinov Stall," and argues it arrives sooner than today's investment pace assumes.
Guseinov has watched this exact shape play out before, an open channel, near-zero cost to send, and a hard ceiling on attention at the other end, in the spam wars that nearly broke email two decades ago. What rescued email wasn't restraint; it was infrastructure: authentication, reputation scoring, and platform-level enforcement.
In Forbes, he lays out the four layers the agent economy will demand next, and why the builders betting on infinite runway are the ones most likely to get caught flat. Read his full article in Forbes:
